Begin Planning for Economic Recovery

— by Joel Thomas

As a business leader, how should I interact with the uncertainty that COVID19 presents? 

In life, there are winners and losers...and it is not a static thing, but something that is constantly changing. COVID19 will certainly yield some winners and losers. My mom and seven relatives were on the Princess Cruise ship, and three of them contracted the virus, while the rest of them did not. I am in a unique position where on one hand I own a disaster & emergency management consultancy that is likely to “win” from COVID19, while on the other hand, I am President of a family-owned restaurant will likely “lose”, as we have been forced to close and furlough all employees, and the outlook is bleak. 

These bipolar realities have caused me to reflect on Ecclesiastes 9:11, “Again I saw that under the sun the race is not to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, nor bread to the wise, nor riches to the intelligent, nor favor to those with knowledge, but time and chance happen to them all.” 

Rewind 20 years, and I recall when I met and later married my wife, how we had very little (actually hundreds of dollars) to our names, yet the Lord provided and made a way when at times it seemed we had come to the end. I recall at one point relying on the generosity of others and government healthcare for a season, while my wife and I ate rice and beans most nights for dinner. I consider the opportunity I have had to travel and serve in more than 50 nations as a Christian missionary, humanitarian volunteer and business owner.  I remember also being tempted in those times of great scarcity to stop being generous, but choosing to be generous and share from what I had in my hands to give. I also recall taking a leap from a very comfortable employment situation to “risk it all” and launch my business just months after welcoming a fourth child into the world. I have also had the privilege of building a healthy small business, employing others, and caring for their families as well as our clients around the world. 

In my life, having had opportunities to work in contexts from the slums of East Africa to the White House, I have come to accept the seasons of uncertainty as normative, and that has been informed by experiencing what it means to have plenty and to be in want. And in every season, Christ has been the cornerstone of my life. The words of Paul resonate with me, when he said “I know what it is to be in need, and I know what it is to have plenty. I have learned the secret of being content in any and every situation, whether well fed or hungry, whether living in plenty or in want.” Philippians 4:12. 

The challenge humanity faces with this paradox is that we often hold too tightly to a particular vision of our lives, and become disillusioned when anything upsets that. Jesus is not interested in our comfort, but our “no strings attached” willingness to follow Him. That is going to be tested for many in this season, including entrepreneurs and small business owners. Some of our businesses will falter, others will fail, and some will do just fine. The moment of truth comes when we face the reality that our faith is oftentimes tied up in the success of our business.  

The secret of success in this moment is to look to Jesus’ calm in the midst of the storm. He is the one who invited me off the boat like Peter on the Sea of Galilee to walk in adventurous faith, and now even though the waters are turbulent, He is standing there looking at me. This Palm Sunday, let us reflect on the reality that in these uncertain and ever-changing times, there is only one Rock to cling to, and He is immovable, unshakeable, and ever-present in our time of need. Will my eyes be fixed on Him, or will I waiver in this moment. Just because I have heard His voice in the past does not mean that I am listening right now. Take heed and listen. 

What is the appropriate faith-driven community response to COVID19?

1. Safeguarding lives
A few weeks ago much of humanity, including many churches and people of faith around the world, rallied behind the idea that “flattening the curve = love your neighbor” on the premise that Christians can help to save lives and reduce stress on the healthcare industry by sanitizing and isolating to slow the spread of COVID19. The global directives from health care experts and government officials have led to widespread declarations of emergency, lockdowns, closures, cancellations and stoppage of work in cities, states and nations alike. While we have yet to fully understand the consequences of these decisions, it is appropriate to do everything that we can to protect the health and save the lives of the most vulnerable, and follow the laws of the land and guidance provided by the authorities. I am not a health official and much has been written about this topic, so I will turn to point #2. 

2. Safeguarding livelihoods
Inasmuch as people of faith were motivated out of sincere devotion to God to love their neighbors and protect their health, we should broaden the aperture to consider how we can help to save and sustain livelihoods and reduce long-term suffering by “flattening the economic curve” for businesses, their employees and families in a safe and responsible way. In other words, for faith-driven communities,  “flattening the economic curve = love your neighbor”, and is not mutually exclusive with flattening the health curve. Some may not think we can or should do anything to address economic hardships, or that government will figure it out as they have recently passed a few bills including a $2.2 trillion stimulus, but there are in fact many practical ways we can help our local businesses and the families they provide for in ways that will not exacerbate the health catastrophe. 

In my recent post “A Plan to Black Start the Economy”, I made the case that at a macro-level we need to have a national plan to get businesses and local economies back open as soon as possible in a safe and responsible way, and in the mean-time, we need to find creative and aggressive ways to patronize these businesses and keep cash flowing. Lives and livelihoods depend upon it, and mitigation is the key to success. Legislative and policy maneuvers can serve as temporary bandages, but only real-world commerce and trade will enable economies to heal. This particularly applies to the most vulnerable, including but not limited to small businesses, the 70% of those that cannot telecommute, and especially to 5 of 6 Hispanics and 4 of 5 African-Americans that are unable to telecommute according to the Bureau for Labor Statistics. Let us be mindful and care for one another, especially those in need during this time. 

Morgan Stanley predicts American Gross Domestic Product will drop 30% from April-June 2020. McKinsey just published nine economic scenarios including the definition of the “imperative of our time” which is to both safeguard lives and safeguard livelihoods.

At this time, nations have no plans to restart their economies, as the focus is on health and life safety. We need to begin planning for and contributing to economic recovery now at the policy level and the grassroots level, because without collective action, there will be unretractable losses that are avoidable and that will cause great suffering to many families. Therefore, I implore you to help mobilize your networks to flatten the economic curve for small businesses in your community in creative, safe and responsible ways. 
It is both a faith-driven and pragmatic response to our present reality.

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[Special thanks to Dimitri Houtteman for the cover photo]

FOR MORE INFORMATION ON COVID-19, PLEASE SEE OUR PAGE HIGHLIGHTING THE BEST RESOURCES OUT THERE FOR FAITH DRIVEN ENTREPRENEURS IN THIS SEASON.